Walter Molano, cuyas publicaciones “The Latin American Adviser” y “The Emerging Market Adviser” me hace llegar mi amigo Fernando Del Corro, es uno de los consultores (bah, gurúes) más destacados de Wall Street, especializado en los mercados emergentes, en particular, en los latinoamericanos. Como tal, sus opiniones son interesantes y valiosas para nosotros, en tanto sepamos leerlas (y no me refiero solamente a dominar el inglés). En varios de los mails que remito de cuando en cuando a amigos y lectores, cité sus evaluaciones sobre la solidez de la demanda mundial por materias primas (positivas), de los tratados de libre comercio que impulsa el departamento de Estado (muy críticas), y del manejo de la deuda externa argentina (aún más críticas, por supuesto). Creo que mencioné en alguno que apreciaba en sus análisis la lúcida objetividad de alguien a quien sólo le importaba, básicamente, la tasa de retorno. Este artículo suyo, muy reciente, me parece importante. Cuando tenga tiempo, lo traduciré al castellano. Mientras, les sugiero que los que pueden hacerlo, lo lean. Son especulaciones a la Paul Kennedy, pero que provienen de alguien cuyo negocio son los números muy concretos, y como su vínculo es con el sistema financiero puede examinar el tema con objetividad. Porque justamente, toma como punto de partida la demanda por recursos naturales, y reúne recientes desarrollos – como la flexión de músculos de Rusia en el Àrtico – con otros bastante anteriores, como esos tratados de libre comercio que U.S.A. promueve, para prever la aparición de un fantasma que no se invocaba desde los ´60: el neocolonialismo. Y es, repito, un hombre de Wall Street el que lo ve en el horizonte.

 

 

Neo-Colonialism on the Horizon?

 

Walter Molano, Ph. D.
 

The recent scramble for the Artic and the renewed interest in Africa hint that the rise of colonialism may be on the horizon. The colonial system of the 19th century was a variation of the imperial systems that previously spanned the globe.

Earlier imperial systems were based on tribute and taxation. The Roman and Mongol empires exacted payments from vassal states. Other imperial systems were based on human tribute. The Ottomans pressed young boys from vassal states into government service, to serve as Janissaries in the military and bureaucracy. The Aztecs demanded the payment of individuals for human sacrifice. The 19th century imperial variation was established on a mercantilist structure, built around natural resources and market exclusivity.

 

The competition for colonial territories was a constant source of conflict, culminating in two World Wars during the 20th century and a long interruption of the globalized economic system. However, the resurgence of globalization is reviving the competition for natural resources and market exclusivity, thus sowing the seeds for a new era of colonization.   The violent end of World War II marked the end of the globalized system--and not surprisingly, the colonial system. Slogans and Hollywood aside, World War II was fought over natural resources and market access. The natural resources of North Africa, the Caspian, South East Asia and Manchuria were the real objectives.

 

The end of the war had the unintended consequence of terminating the colonial system thanks to the isolation of large parts of the global population and natural resource pools. China, India and Central Asia were voluntarily or intentionally excised from the global community, truncating the marketplace. Faced with a decline in the demand for raw materials, colonial powers, such as Great Britain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium and France, began shedding their holdings.

 

Cloaked under the guise of democracy and freedom, the real reason for the de-colonialization movement of the 1960s was the realization that the commodity revenues generated by the colonies no longer warranted the maintenance costs. Given that the global order would remain static for the foreseeable future, there was no need to hold on to commodity producing assets.

 

However, the situation changed at the end of the 20th century, with the collapse of the Iron Curtain, China's reintegration with the global community, and the liberalization of the Indian economy. Overnight, commodity prices soared and the mad scramble for natural resources was reignited.   Today, natural resources are at the top of the strategic agenda. Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway and the U.S. are jostling for position in the commodity-rich Artic basin. China is tightening its grip over Africa. The U.S. is coyly doing the same, using the Free Trade Agreement framework to ensure a lock on the Andean region.

 

The colonialism of the 21st century will be different from earlier constructs. It will be based on treaties, bi-lateral assistance and long-term concessions. Nevertheless, the result will be the same. It will give a set of nations an unfair advantage over resources and markets, creating distortions that eventually manifest themselves into social and political unrest.

   

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